SMTC stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Semtech Corp is a provider of high-performance semiconductors powering data center networking, Internet of Things ("IoT") connectivity, and cellular infrastructure solutions... Show more
Why Semtech (SMTC) Stock Is Up +41% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Semtech shares climbed roughly 41% over the 30-day period ending in early October, advancing from about $132 to about $187 as AI-driven data center demand remained the dominant catalyst.
- The move builds on record fiscal second-quarter results reported August 25, when revenue beat estimates and third-quarter guidance came in well above consensus.
- Record data center revenue of $100 million (up 91% year over year) and record LoRa revenue of $58 million (up 58% year over year) are the core growth engines behind the re-rating.
- Post-earnings analyst price-target increases, including moves by UBS and Morgan Stanley, reinforced the positive sentiment.
- The broader quarter was volatile, featuring a July pullback toward $103 before the stock recovered to new highs.
Semtech (SMTC) Company Overview and Market Position
Semtech Corporation designs, develops, and sells analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, advanced algorithms, and IoT systems. Its portfolio spans signal integrity products such as FiberEdge optical transimpedance amplifiers and drivers and CopperEdge linear equalizers and active copper cables; circuit protection devices including TVS and SurgeSwitch; wireless and sensing solutions built around its LoRa and LoRaWAN technology; and IoT connectivity hardware through its AirLink router business. The company has become a key supplier into the AI data center buildout, serving hyperscalers and optical module makers as the industry transitions from 800G toward 1.6T and 3.2T interconnects. Investors follow SMTC closely because of its leverage to data center networking, its expanding photonics capabilities, and its multi-year LoRa adoption story.
Semtech (SMTC) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the 30-day period ending October 1, SMTC rose from a closing price of approximately $132.27 on September 1 to $186.59, a gain of about 41%. The advance included a sharp breakout in early September, followed by a brief mid-month pullback tied to broader market volatility, and a subsequent recovery to new closing highs.
On a quarterly basis, the move is more measured but still substantial. From a closing level near $147.03 at the start of July, shares gained roughly 27% through early October. That headline figure, however, understates the turbulence in between: the stock fell to about $103 in late July amid a broad semiconductor de-risking before staging a powerful recovery that carried it through its earnings-driven breakout and beyond prior record levels.
What Drove SMTC Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The rally was anchored by the company's fiscal second-quarter report released August 25. Revenue of $341.9 million grew 33% year over year, while non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.71 rose 73%, both ahead of expectations. Guidance for the fiscal third quarter of approximately $410 million in revenue and $1.05 in non-GAAP EPS, implying roughly 54% year-over-year top-line growth, further lifted sentiment into September.
Investor enthusiasm centered on the data center business, which posted record revenue of $100 million, up 91% year over year, driven by 800G products and the early ramp of 1.6T FiberEdge and CopperEdge solutions. Management projected about 45% sequential data center growth in the third quarter on record backlog. Analysts responded with higher targets following the print, including increases from UBS and Morgan Stanley, while Needham reiterated a Buy rating.
The stock also experienced sector-wide swings. A mid-September pullback, when rising Treasury yields and oil prices pressured growth-oriented semiconductors, briefly interrupted the advance, but shares recovered as AI infrastructure demand stayed intact. Additional news flow, including Amazon Sidewalk's international expansion and new product announcements across optical, LoRa, and protection lines, supported the constructive tone.
What Drove SMTC Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The three-month trend reflects both macro volatility and a fundamental re-rating. In July, shares sold off alongside the broader semiconductor complex, retreating from mid-$140s levels to a low near $103 as investors reduced exposure to crowded AI names. The narrative shifted decisively after the August earnings report, which demonstrated accelerating revenue growth, expanding gross margins, and meaningful operating leverage.
Beyond the quarterly numbers, portfolio optimization has shaped the story. Semtech announced a definitive agreement to divest its cellular module business, a move management expects to be non-GAAP EPS neutral while structurally lifting the margin profile. The company has also expanded its photonics capabilities, including an earlier acquisition of HieFo, and is building out capacity for gain chips and continuous-wave lasers. These steps position Semtech more squarely around high-margin data center and IoT growth, reinforcing the multi-month move.
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SMTC Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Several factors will shape SMTC's trajectory in the months ahead. The company's next earnings report is expected in early December, when investors will assess whether the third-quarter targets of about $410 million in revenue and $1.05 in non-GAAP EPS are met or exceeded. Progress on 1.6T FiberEdge market share, which management expects to exceed 50% by the end of the fiscal year, and CopperEdge design-ins extending toward 3.2T will be closely watched.
Completion of the cellular module divestiture, anticipated in the fiscal fourth quarter, and the timing of continuous-wave laser revenue contributions in the first half of fiscal 2028 are additional milestones. On the demand side, LoRa growth and Amazon Sidewalk's expansion across additional regions could influence results. Broader risks include semiconductor sector sentiment, AI capital expenditure trends, supply constraints, and valuation, given the stock's elevated earnings multiple. As always, these factors present both opportunities and risks rather than guaranteed outcomes.
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SMTC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SMTC turned positive on August 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where SMTC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SMTC as a result. In 64 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
SMTC moved above its 50-day moving average on September 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SMTC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +9.27% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SMTC advanced for three days, in 250 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 224 of 266 cases where SMTC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 84%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SMTC moved out of overbought territory on September 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 32 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SMTC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
SMTC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SMTC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SMTC's P/B Ratio (21.786) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.811). P/E Ratio (115.755) is within average values for comparable stocks, (160.549). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.213) is also within normal values, averaging (3.705). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.006) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (13.532) is also within normal values, averaging (44.558).
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General Information
a manufacturer of analog and mixed-signal semiconductors
Industry Semiconductors